Probability and Poker - Not just for math wizards.
Understanding probability in poker is essential for consistent winning sessions for No Limit Strategy and becomes even more important for the Limit player. Many players avoid this facet of poker all together, typically because they are intimidated by the math portion of it or they simply think poker is just another casino gamble. Poker is a game of skill that is broken down into two major skill sets, Psychology and Math. Psychology includes reading tells and accessing your opponents behavior. Math mainly includes bank roll management and odds/probability. Match is the focus of this article and in particular, the math surrounding odds. When figuring out odds in poker, you are basically looking at the known information on the table, what cards are shown and therefore what cards are left in the deck. Using this information you can determine how many of those cards left in the deck will “make” your hand.
For example: If I hold 2 hearts (Ah, Kh) as my hole cards and the flop has 2 hearts(6h 10h 2c). Without seeing any other cards I know what there are 13 cards of each suit in the deck. There are 4 showing leaving 9 more hearts in the deck. Those would be my “outs”, because those cards are required to improve or “make” my hand. It is that simple.
Most people understand this concept, however converting to probability typically becomes the intimidating part. The thought of fractions and percentages makes many people queasy as they think of the horrifying days of math class. Fortunately, there is a math trick thanks to a player named Devil Fish. He is a world class poker player and has expertise in mathematics. He has created a simple formula of converting outs to percentages or probabilities. It is broken down into two formulas, one is for the probability on the flop and the second is for the probability on the turn.
Formula for the Flop:
(Number of Outs on the Flop x 4) -2 = Odds of winning or making your hand in terms of %
Example: (9 x 4) - 2 => (36) - 2 = 34%
Formula for the Turn:(Number of Outs on the Turn x 2) + 2 = Odds of winning or making your hand in terms of %
Example: (9 x 2) + 2 => ( 18 ) + 2 = 20%
In each case the probability produced is the odds that you will make your hand by the river. Since on the flop there are 2 cards yet to come (the turn and river) the percentage is higher because you have more chances to make your hand.The next step is simply applying this percentage to the pot size to find out if you have “pot odds” to call, meaning are you getting value on your hand given the relationship between the pot size and the amount of the bet to see the next card.
I will discuss pot odds in a future post.
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