Archive for the ‘Poker Strategy’ Category

Low Limit Poker Strategy| Part 3

Monday, October 27th, 2008

The game really is as simple as Pre-flop and Post Flop action. Now we will look at individual game types within the loose/passive field. You will encounter three different games if you are looking for loose/passive players.

1. Loose Post-flop

2. Loose Pre and Post flop

The softest games will feature passive players in all situations. Again, those are players that do not regularly make large bets or raises. I advise sticking to those games.

Loose Post-flop:
This game will allow you to make some position bets pre-flop. This game will still be somewhat loose pre-flop, but a $20 bet will narrow down the field to heads up, but that doesn’t mean they are holding QQ or better. The main difference here is that your pre-flop raise will mean more to the competition and they tend to “respect” them more. This game will also allow you to make follow up bets on the flop and take down the pot if your oppenent wildly misses. You will tend to see less rivers on this type of game. You can also make the occasional and well timed bluff (depending on your opponent of course).

Loose Pre-flop and Post flop:
This is my favorite and most lucrative game. This should really read: “looser” since a loose/passive game is always more loose than a typical game, this games is just more loose than the above game. Let me define this game as follows: A raise to $20 will get callers with hands like K2h, 84 off, J10 off. (From personal experience, I’ve seen these hands played) When playing this game it is important to understand that you cannot make position bets like you can with better or tighter players. On a 1/2 loose pre-flop game, raising to$20 can easily entice 4 callers. Now, this bet has gotten you nowhere unless you flop a monster hand. Since these players are loose anyway, it is better to keep the pot smaller so that you do not have to invest a lot of money until you get a great hand (after the flop). This also means that you are really going to have to make a large bet with QQ KK and AA pre-flop to narrow the field pre-flop. This should get you in a great position heads up with some crap hand like KQoff.

DO NOT try to win against this field by bluffing. There may be 1 or 2 players at these tables that will lay down a hand, but you will more than likely get called with any variety of hands on this table.

Notice: there is not a specific game labeled “loose pre-flop”. That is becuase, if they are loose pre-flop, they will be loose post flop. These games typically do not tighten up after the flop on low limit games. If you find this rare game where you find players are calling w/ marginal hands and are eager to fold after the flop. You can take down decent sized pots with follow up bets on the flop, especially when an Ace hits the board. But, these games are boring and still a grind. I advise sticking to the loose post flop action games.

Watch and Wait
You will notice this type of play is a watch and wait strategy. You will appear very passive to the table until you get a hand, then you will attack. A personal touch I make to this strategy is to “set up” the table early. Some set ups are a little more complicated than what is required here. This is a simple game that requires very little “set up”.  It is as simple as this: Make one large bluff early in the game, make sure everyone sees your hand win or lose. I find it is best to bet from start to finish and end with an all in. Best case, you take down pot, worst case…you lose. In either case, these players will now think you bluff EVERY hand. They will continue to think this even after you show winning hand after winning hand thereafter. Since you brought 5-7 more buy-ins, you didn’t just blow your wad on this bluff if you get called. You may want to make weak bluffs every so often just to keep them guessing and continue the charade. By weak bluff I mean a fairly small bet $10-15 (where this is about a pot size bet, it won’t be much of a bluff at a $100 pot) on the river with low pair or nothing and of course SHOW YOUR HAND, WIN OR LOSE. You may think this is a waste of money, but you have a small chance to win the pot, however the main purpose is investing in the idea that you bluff. This is so that when you hit a hand, they will think your $100+ bet is a bluff too. Bad players can’t tell the difference between all ins and regular bets. To them, once you bluff, it doesn’t matter what you bet…you MUST be bluffing. Of course, after this set up, it is a bad idea to try to actually win a pot by bluffing. You will want to only bet when you have it, but bet strong, because to them your always bluffing.

Play the Field
This article is a general plan and is most effective against the bad to average player. You must still play individual players against their nuances. You can’t play a good player and a bad player heads up the same way. But you have to remember, when other bad players are in the hand, you have to dumb your game down to the lowest level first. You may think it is a good pot, flop and position to bluff against the better player, but as long as dumb players are in the hand with you, it is better to stick to the plan. Also, remember your targets are not the good players. Chances are you and your well playing counter part will gather most of the chips on the table. You will find that the good players will stay out of each others way. I’m there for the easy money. If I wanted a real game, I’d play a better field for higher stakes anyway.

Summary:
-Look for true loose/passive games: Players call many bets with many hands, but rarely raise and they tend to  bet small.

-Always have an appropriate bank roll: 20 times the max buy-in or 2,000 times the big blind.

-Sit to the left of large stacks

-Open up your pre-flop hand selection, but adjust the rankings

-Call early position with any playable hand, since it is rarely raised, first position is nearly the same as last. If you find yourself getting raised out of this call a lot, find a new table. In that case it is NOT a passive table.

-Always raise BIG with QQ or better pr-flop

-Do not slow play EVER!

-When you make a hand, bet and bet hard

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Low Limit Poker Strategy| Part Due

Monday, September 15th, 2008

The best way to break down the game is into betting rounds, pre-flop and post flop. There will be other aspects discussed. But this is the best place to start.

Pre-flop
This is where the biggest mistakes really begin for any player. With softer and often times less experienced competition, you will find many players play loose-passive. This means, they call a lot of bets and even large ones with marginal hands, but rarely raise or re-raise. This is the best competition to have. If you find your table is too tight, try to find a better table. The fact that your competition rarely raises or re-raises allows you to play first position as if you are last to go on a loose passive table. You will want to see as many “cheap” flops as possible with any connectors, suited cards, low pocket pair and Ace rag. You can simply call with any of these hands from early position without much risk that the pot will be raised. In the rare case the pot is raised, it is a very marginal raise; Typically to $6 or $7. If it is raised anymore than $10. Your opponent probably has a monster. I’ll tell you when to call those raises with marginal hands later. With a loose table, implied odds for any hand are very high. In other words, you will get paid if you hit a hand with 4 other people in with you.

Marginal Hands:
Connectors: consist of hands like 56, j10 and even 79; where the two cards are separated by no more than 1 card. Just call.

Suited Cards: consist of ANY two cards that are suited. Lower suited cards, just call. A or K suited or suited connectors raise to $6 or $7 to build the pot.

Low Pocket Pair: 99 and below. Just call. Up to 5% of your stack. Or go all in if you are short stacked 77 and above.

Ace Rag: A3, A7. Just call…unless it’s suited, then raise to $6 or $7 to build the pot.

Good Hands:
Strong Ace: AQ and AK and above. Call or Raise to $10. A10 and AJ should be played as connectors. These hands are good but your kicker may not be any good. You are really looking for straights trips or two pair.

Mid Pocket Pair: 10 10 and JJ. Many people will try to argue this and say JJ is high pocket pair and 77 is mid pocket pair. You are still really looking for trips or a very non threating flop with the hand. The problem is, even if your 10’s or J’s are top pair after the flop. Players still call looking for face cards. It is definitely safe to bet after the flop, but you have to be careful. Call or Raise to $10-$15.

Premium Hands:
AK AQ Suited: These are premium hands in the fact that you can call larger raises with them, but I still am looking for 2 pair or greater after the flop.

High Pocket Pair: QQ, KK, AA. Raise to $20 or more. Best situation, try to get all of your money in pre-flop with 1 caller.

Not A Donkey…Maybe a Little
After reading this hand selection breakdown, you may be thinking that I am telling you to play like a donkey…well, I am…kinda. The difference between you and the donkey is your bets when you make a good hand. You will know how to bet and make max profit from made hands. That and their hand selection is even less selective.

You will find these rules differ from “textbook” poker. You will call much more often from early position and refrain from raising with hands like 99. Again, the reason you can call from early position is because, the pot is rarely raised on a passive game, so the risk it will be raised a large amount, even if there are a lot of callers is slim. Raising with 99 will not get you any information since many loose-passive players will play K3 off suite after a raise. If 633 flops and there were 3 to 4 callers, you have no clue if your 9’s are good. A large pot is going to get A6 to call after the flop as well. Does your opponent have K3, A6 or AQ and still coming along? Let me express this important point: You are looking for MONSTER flops and draws. You still need to bet when you think you have the best hand. But don’t get too carried away unless you have a monster. A monster is top two pair or greater, depending on the board.

Ace Crackers: Calling raises with marginal hands
These are literally any of the hands discussed in this section, marginal through premium. (However, you should be careful if you only flop top pair, you are looking for 2 pair or greater.) In fact, the lower the cards, often times the better. If you have suited connectors and raise to $7, only to get re-raised to say $15 or more.  You can bet they have a big pocket pair, usually JJ or higher. You should then look at their stack, because if you hit your hand, their chips are as good as yours. In this case, you are not calling because you think you have the best hand pre-flop. They need to have a lot of chips along with you to make these kinds of calls. You are looking at the implied odds of the situation, you want to at least see 2 pair on the flop or a great draw.

Play accordingly. There is really no reason to go all in on the flop when it is heads up in this situation, without a made hand. The reason being, your opponent will more than likely call. Do not go all in if you are behind in this situation. The purpose of going all in on a draw(semi-bluff) should be primarily to win the pot right then and there. Some players might think that is the best chance to win a big pot if they hit their big draw, because their opponent might fold on the turn or river if they hit. You do not have to worry about your opponent folding if you make a hand. They will most likely call off $500 dollars with their pocket pair, whether it improves or not. That is why implied odds are so good in this situation. If you completely miss a flop…bail! Do not try to outplay them, you can pick a better spot. You will find badd players will call with AK down to the river with just Ace high, so it is hard to shake them off any hand. Save that for when you have a made hand.

Let them bet the hand. The main reason implied odds are in your favor is because loose passive tables do not know how to bet. They have a tendency to try to “trap” with over pair. With a $50 pot, you will find them betting $10 on the flop and possibly $10-20 on the turn. You are almost guaranteed pot odds if you flop a good draw. (If you find a player tends to bet larger amounts when checked to, but tend to only call smaller bets if you act first; go ahead and lead bet an amount that will give you favorable pot odds.)

Many players at these low limit games play big pocket pair horribly. You will find many players limp in with 10 10 and better. In this case, these pocket pair will probably be crushed because 4-9 players will be in the hand, reducing the strength of just top pair. I have seen many cases where big pocket pair will hit a set, only to get crushed by a straight or higher. When players limp in with big pocket pair. It can be difficult to put them on say AA, typically you can tell they have a good hand, but that is about it. Just play your monsters and watch the disappointment on their face when they lose and you take down a nice pot.

Ace crackers are what make me appear to be a stupid poker player at these lower limit games. Many players have lost a huge pot to me with big pocket pair after I have called $10-$15 raises to hit hands. The reason being, they have had $200 or more in front of them and I have at least matched their stack. Many times I will take down a huge pot like this and players will say things like, “That’s OK, if you keep playing like that, all those chips are coming back over here.” To which I reply “Yes, $10 at a time” or whatever their raise was.

Only call raises with marginal hands against the poor and average player. The good players will price you out of draws and are more likely to make a great lay down if you hit a good hand, thus lowering your implied odds against them.

Continued: Low Limit Poker Strategy| Part 3

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Low Limit Poker Strategy| Part 1

Saturday, September 13th, 2008

When playing lower limit NL Hold em games, it is important to understand that in order to win you typically need to leave your advanced concepts on the rail. The best way to say it, you should dumb down your game. Low limit games are notorious for poor play. Poor play is what makes these tables so attractive to play, yet it is also a big reason knowledgeable players cannot post a trend of winning sessions. This does not mean that you should play stupid, it just means you should treat this game different. We are going to look at how to take advantage of soft games on lower limit games. There are three major things to consider when playing any game, they are: blinds, bankroll, seat selection and competition.

Blinds/Buy-in
A lower limit game is generally considered to be a $2/$2 game or lower. These games typically have a $200 max buy-in or lower. While many people will argue that $200 is not chump change, in the world of poker…it is. These games will generally attract softer competition, which can get a lot of “text book” players in trouble. I respect the “Super System” and other well known advanced poker strategy books, but these books are only half truth when it comes to low limit NL hold em.

Bankroll
Like in any poker game, you then want to think about an appropriate bank roll. Your bankroll is how much money you have behind you devoted to playing poker. This should not include IRA’s or your children’s college fund. It is a roll of money you absolutely can afford to lose. Generally, your bank roll should not be any less than 20 times the buy-in for your preferred game. The most important reason to have this size bank roll is psychology. If you only have $100 or $200 to gamble with and losing that money will make you lose sleep, you will play scared. If you know you have 20 buy-ins to play with, you will be able to play with the proper aggression and take proper risks. However, that does not mean that you should bring your entire bank roll with you to play. I typically bring about 5-7 times the buy-in to play and leave the rest at home. The reason you do not want to bring your entire roll is simple. If you loose more than 7 buy-ins you will probably not be able to play right. Whether these losses where due to poor play or not, you will more than likely be on tilt. You will either play scared or take too many risks trying to “catch up”. I typically call it a day if I loose 5 buy-ins, even if I bring 7.

Seat Selection
If you have time to observe a game before sitting down, it is best to sit to the left of any player who raises a lot and plays aggressive. If you do not have time to observe the table, a good rule is to sit to the left of the big stacks. These rules apply to all games as well, but we needed to mention it. If you do not have a seat choice, just sit down and play. Players will be knocked out and you will be able to change seats if it will benefit you later.

Competition
Now you need to evaluate your competition. The optimable table will consist of 2-3 bad players, 4-5 average players and 1-2 good players (including yourself of course). Too many bad players and the game can be too erratic. Many times it is already difficult to know where you stand in any hand at low limit games, but adding more bad players increases the random calls of players who you did not think stayed with a gut shot draw for a pot sized bet. If there are not enough bad players, the game can be fairly tight and is usually not the best to make money at. Good players help control the game a bit, but you do not want too many of these either. They are your direct competition, they are the only players who will consistently win at these tables along with you. Average players are just in the mix. You can make money on them and they give you the opportunity to make bluffs the bad players won’t fold to and the good players might sniff out.

Note on good players: There will be two types of good players you will encounter, “low limit sharks” and “poker elitist”. Both of these types understand the game of poker completely, they have probably read books, played many hands and have studied the game as if it were an art. The difference between the two players is that the shark understands that “textbook” poker does not apply to lower limit. The elitist is a poker snob and is too smart for his own good. He has read all the books and now he wants to apply them to a game where the “rules” don’t apply and other players don’t play by the “rules”. He is a player that will constantly get frustrated that no one gave him respect after 3 calls, a raise and now his re-raise. He is also a player that will check in the dark with a big hand, thinking it will insight action. It usually just confuses people into checking at low limit games. I have seen these players routinely walk away in frustration and call me a donkey, because they don’t understand how to play low limit. What they fail to understand is their raise 4 times the big blind is still only $8. When they have $400 in front of them along with me, $8 is well worth the risk to “hit” a monster and drain their stack. Elitist can be pooled with the average players if you spot one.

Continued: Low Limit Poker Strategy Part Due

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Poker Pot Odds - Value of Poker Hands

Wednesday, April 2nd, 2008

After you understand how to calculate your odds and outs of poker hands. The next step is applying this information toward valuing each pot according to the size of the pot and your outs. Using probability in valuation is nothing new. It is the basic approach toward valuing stocks and other investments.

For a quick and simple understanding of pot odds. Consider this example: Imagine a game where a 2 sided coin was flipped and if it landed on heads you would be paid $10. The question is, how much would you pay to play this game each time? If you answered less than $5, pat yourself on the back, you understand pot odds (unless it was a lucky guess).

Why less than $5? In each game you have a 50%(1/2) chance of winning $10. If you pay 5$ each time to play, you will be getting even money. Over time you will break even. You will not lose money, but you will not win money either. Why waste your time? If you pay less than $5 you will win money over time given the odds. Further, if you pay more than $5 to play, you will lose money over time. Notice: $5 is equal to 50% of $10 or (probability x pot). If you were using a mythical 4 sided coin and you were paid $10 for landing on one of the 4 sides. Even money would then be 25%(1/4) of $10 or $2.50.

Let’s look at 10 trials if you pay $3 to play.

50% of the time you will lose and pay $15 (5 trials x $3) to win $0.
50% of the time you will win and pay $15 (5 trials x $3) to win $50.
Total you would pay $30(15 + 15) and win $50 for a net profit of $20. Of course this assumes the probabilities hold true for this small sample. These probabilities will be more accurate as the amount of trials increases.

This example is no different from pot odds in poker. To calculate the value of the pot, you simply multiply the odds (percentage) of winning times the amount you can win, in the case of poker that amount would be the pot size. After you calculate even money, it is as simple as paying anything less than that amount.

You can find the odds of winning on the turn with the following formula: (# of outs x 2) + 2 = % to win hand.

If you have a flush draw on the turn, using the formula you will find that you have a 20% chance of making your hand [(9×2)+2=20]. If the pot is $100. You want to pay anything less than 20% of the pot after all bets are included after your bet or call. Meaning if this situation was heads up and your opponent bet $20. The pot after all bets are in will be $140. You will be willing to pay anything less than $28 to see the river and hopefully hit your flush. If you pay less than $28 and can repeat this situation many times through other hands. You will win money over time. This exact situation with the same amount will not occur in succession. However, over time the principal will remain the same. You want to pay appropriate values for hands and avoid overpaying for draws.

In poker, you don’t have to win every hand. The key is losing some of the time and winning most of the time.

TIP: Many people are intimidated by working with percentages. However, there are some simple tricks you can use to estimate the percentage of the pot. If you know how to find 50%, 10% and 1% of anything you are good. Here’s how to use it.

Find 25% of 350. Many people would have trouble with the multiplication in their head. A trick to finding this percentage is simply finding 50% of 50% of 350…or 1/2 of 1/2 of 350. 50% of 350 is 175, 50% of 175 is approx 87. So, 25% of 350 is approximately 87. You only need to be accurate within 1-2%. The actual number is 87.5 which is close enough. You will want to round down so that your approximations are more conservative and you will avoid overpaying for hands even by a few percentage points.

Find 33% of 400. A simple way to find this is break it up into 10% and 1%. 30% is simply 3 x 10% and 3% is simply 3 x 1%.
10% of 400 is 40, multiplied by 3 is 120. 1% of 400 is 4, multiplied by 3 is 12. So, 33% of 400 is 120 + 12=> 132.

The pot size can be in terms of dollars as in cash games or value of chips if you are playing a tournament. The principal is the same.

You can also apply this shortcut to other percentages like 5% which is simply 1/2 of 10% and so on.

If you don’t fully understand it all. Don’t worry. Like anything, it just takes a bit of practice. I really only began to fully understand percentages and probabilities after I started playing poker. It gave everything a hands on application.

If you need further relief from the math, you can round the percentage DOWN to the nearest tenths place in increments of 5%. Example: 33%=>30%, 46%=>45%, 22%=>20%. It is best to be as accurate as possible. But, The difference of 1-2% will not make too much of an impact on you deciding to play or fold. And since you are rounding DOWN, the rounding errors will keep you from loosing money, due to overpaying for hands even by a few dollars.

You may want to remember common percentages for both the turn and river for different draws. Mainly, Straight Draws, Flush Draws and the monster, a combination of a flush and straight draw.

Keep in mind you typically only want to draw into hands that will get you a premium hand. Playing pot odds on a big pot just to get an 8 high flush is probably not a good idea. This is especially true with more players at the table, because the likelihood someone else will be drawing for a much higher flush is greater. You also want to avoid drawing into hands when a pair is present on the board, this is because you can be trumped by a full house. The last example is drawing into sucker straights. Example: Hole Cards: 3,6h…Board: 5s 7c 8s…This hand is not a strong hand to draw into with 6-10 players at a table. The reason: The only card you want to see right now is the 4. Someone may already have the nuts with 6,9 and even if you hit your 9, you will then be guessing what other straights may be out there. It’s not that you should never play from these positions, but drawing into large pots using pot odds with these hands will tend to get you in trouble. Stick to the the more promising draws.

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Probability and Poker - Not just for math wizards.

Saturday, March 22nd, 2008

Understanding probability in poker is essential for consistent winning sessions for No Limit Strategy and becomes even more important for the Limit player. Many players avoid this facet of poker all together, typically because they are intimidated by the math portion of it or they simply think poker is just another casino gamble. Poker is a game of skill that is broken down into two major skill sets, Psychology and Math. Psychology includes reading tells and accessing your opponents behavior. Math mainly includes bank roll management and odds/probability. Match is the focus of this article and in particular, the math surrounding odds. When figuring out odds in poker, you are basically looking at the known information on the table, what cards are shown and therefore what cards are left in the deck. Using this information you can determine how many of those cards left in the deck will “make” your hand.

For example: If I hold 2 hearts (Ah, Kh) as my hole cards and the flop has 2 hearts(6h 10h 2c). Without seeing any other cards I know what there are 13 cards of each suit in the deck. There are 4 showing leaving 9 more hearts in the deck. Those would be my “outs”, because those cards are required to improve or “make” my hand. It is that simple.

Most people understand this concept, however converting to probability typically becomes the intimidating part. The thought of fractions and percentages makes many people queasy as they think of the horrifying days of math class. Fortunately, there is a math trick thanks to a player named Devil Fish. He is a world class poker player and has expertise in mathematics. He has created a simple formula of converting outs to percentages or probabilities. It is broken down into two formulas, one is for the probability on the flop and the second is for the probability on the turn.

Formula for the Flop:
(Number of Outs on the Flop x 4) -2 = Odds of winning or making your hand in terms of %
Example: (9 x 4) - 2 => (36) - 2 = 34%

Formula for the Turn:(Number of Outs on the Turn x 2) + 2 = Odds of winning or making your hand in terms of %
Example: (9 x 2) + 2 => ( 18 ) + 2 = 20%

In each case the probability produced is the odds that you will make your hand by the river. Since on the flop there are 2 cards yet to come (the turn and river) the percentage is higher because you have more chances to make your hand.The next step is simply applying this percentage to the pot size to find out if you have “pot odds” to call, meaning are you getting value on your hand given the relationship between the pot size and the amount of the bet to see the next card.

I will discuss pot odds in a future post.

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Running Cold - Dealing with Bad Beats

Friday, March 21st, 2008

As a poker player, no matter how skilled you may be, you will run cold and either not catch a hand for a long stretch or catch bad beat after bad beat. The length can vary from a few hours to weeks on end. When you find yourself in this situation, it is often times a good idea to take a break if your bank roll is suffering. In this time you should truthfully evaluate your play to make sure this loosing streak has nothing to do with your strategy and make sure you are following sounds poker principals. This time is also good because it can allow you to collect yourself and let your confidence have some time to mend.

I am speaking from experience. I recently came off a really bad streak on sit n go tournaments. I won’t go into each situation, but looking back, every time I was knocked out of the tournament I had the lead in the hand, so my money was in good. I wasn’t short stacked either. I made the occasional bluff and entered a decent mix of pots. I built my chip stacks up and never left the tourney more than 5 of 9 places. I was playing sound poker. It just so happened that when I got into a big pot, I would lose from dominating positions (like pre-flop all in, AK vs KQ, while trying to take down blinds in late position). It’s not like I was putting my chips on the line every other hand either. This run went 10 tourney’s in a row. I had to take a break to evaluate my play. I looked at the hand history from my recent tournaments. Honestly, I could not have played it any better. Sometimes you just run up against it.

In the case of running cold and not catching cards. Don’t be tempted to start playing any two cards. You will only lose more money. In either case it is important to remember to continue to play sound poker when you return, because odds are, if your money is in good, you will win most of the time.

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