Understanding probability in poker is essential for consistent winning sessions and for No Limit Strategy and becomes even more important for the Limit player. Many players avoid this facet of poker all together, typically because they are intimidated by the math portion of it or they simply think poker is just another casino gamble. Poker is a game of skill that is broken down into two major skill sets, Psychology and Math. Psychology includes reading tells and accessing your opponents behavior. Math mainly includes bank roll management and odds/probability. When figuring out odds in poker, you are basically looking at the known information on the table, what cards are shown and therefore what cards are left in the deck. Using this information you can determine how many cards are left in the deck that will “make” your hand.

For example: If I hold 2 hearts as my hole cards and the flop has 2 hearts. Without seeing any other cards I know what there are 13 cards of each suit in the deck. There are 4 showing leaving 9 more hearts in the deck. Those would be my “outs”, because those cards are required to improve or “make” my hand.

Most people understand this concept, however converting to probability typically becomes the intimidating part. The thought of fractions and percentages makes many people queasy as they think of the horrifying days of math class. Fortunately, there is a math trick thanks to a player named Devil Fish. He is a world class poker player and has expertise in mathematics. He has created a simple formula of converting outs to percentages or probabilities. It is broken down into two formulas, one is for the probability on the flop and the second is for the probability on the turn.

Formula for the Flop:
(Number of Outs on the Flop x 4) -2 = Odds of winning or making your hand in terms of %
Example: (9 x 4) - 2 => (36) - 2 = 34%

Formula for the Turn:(Number of Outs on the Turn x 2) + 2 = Odds of winning or making your hand in terms of %
Example: (9 x 2) + 2 => ( 18 ) + 2 = 20%

In each case the probability produced is the odds that you will make your hand by the river. Since on the flop there are 2 cards yet to come (the turn and river) the percentage is higher because you have more chances to make your hand.The next step is simply applying this percentage to the pot size to find out if you have “pot odds” to call, meaning are you getting value on your hand given the relationship between the pot size and the amount of the bet to see the next card.

I will discuss pot odds in a future post.

As a poker player, no matter how skilled you may be, you will run cold and either not catch a hand for a long stretch or catch bad beat after bad beat. The length can vary from a few hours to weeks on end. When you find yourself in this situation, it is often times a good idea to take a break if your bank roll is suffering. In this time you should truthfully evaluate your play to make sure this loosing streak has nothing to do with your strategy and make sure you are following sounds poker principals. This time is also good because it can allow you to collect yourself and let your confidence have some time to mend. I am speaking from experience. I recently came off a really bad streak on sit n go tournaments. I won’t go into each situation, but looking back, every time I was knocked out of the tournament I had the lead in the hand, so my money was in good. I wasn’t short stacked either. I made the occasional bluff and entered a decent mix of pots. I built my chip stacks up and never left the tourney more than 5 of 9 places. I was playing sound poker. It just so happened that when I got into a big pot, I would lose from dominating positions (like pre-flop all in, AK vs KQ, while trying to take down blinds in late position). It’s not like I was putting my chips on the line every other hand either. This run went 10 tourney’s in a row. I had to take a break to evaluate my play. I looked at the hand history from my recent tournaments. Honestly, I could not have played it any better. Sometimes you just run up against it. In the case of running cold and not catching cards. Don’t be tempted to start playing any two cards. You will only lose more money. In either case it is important to remember to continue to play sound poker when you return, because odds are, if your money is in good, you will win most of the time.

Read about poker strategy at RoyalPokerPros.com

These quotes by Doyle Brunson were observed on a poker blog. They are worth a read as Doyle Brunson is the father of NL Texas Holdem. After listening to him talk, it is easy to arrive at the conclusion that he is a very intelligent and wise man. Doyle is the author of the “Super System” which outlines the tight aggressive play style that he practically invented and is mimicked by thousands of players. Quotes by Doyle: 

“I’ve never watched poker shows. I think because they make me look like an old, fat, bald-headed cripple. Oh, wait a minute, that’s what I am isn’t it? I accidentally tuned in on High Stakes Poker on GSN and I was absolutely fascinated by what I saw. This show isn’t a tournament; it is a real cash game where the players can buy more chips when they want and quit when they want. Also, the ante and blinds never go up. I sometimes wonder how I came off a cotton farm in Texas to where I am today. After watching that show every night for the past month, I can understand it. Most of these so-called poker stars can’t play a lick! It is almost embarrassing to watch how badly they play. There are a few that I would call winning players but the bad players far outnumber them. Tournaments don’t really teach you fundamental concepts and that is all most of them do - never playing what I call real poker. I think I have played eleven times since HSP started and have yet to have a losing session.

Another thing I don’t understand is the behavior of some of the players. In my opinion, many of them make fools of themselves by their conduct. The viewing public seems to like it though so I guess that justifies it in their mind. I never use two Doylisms in one blog but one comes to mind…..it seems that Phil Hellmuth, Mike Matusow, and “Sheiky” fit this one perfectly. “They are self-made men. And they love their creator”.

“It is better to be silent and thought of as a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt”

Is Citadel eCheck still available for US Players?  NO

Instant eChecks are the replacement for the Citadel eCheck deposit method for US players. Both are a highly recommended deposit method as they both the use eCheck technology and deposit process. Instant eChecks are just as safe, secure, and fast as the Citadel eCheck service, but Instant eChecks are available for US players. Currently the only poker rooms accepting Instant eChecks are:

1. FullTiltPoker.com
2. PokerStars.com

 Both sites are highly reputable poker rooms with great software, game selection and customer service.